thoughts on how the mess will end.

It is time to write something about the Ukraine war again. It seems that as soon as things dry off there something decisive is going to happen. Exactly what, is unclear, and predicting the future is always problematic.

However, predicting the future is a bit like predicting the weather. It is usually pretty easy to guess it a few days in advance. The further out, the chancier it gets.

But long range predictions about weather patterns, based on past trends, are fairly reliable. Local climates do not change that much, regardless of what the “global warming” weirdos imagine. Ukraine will with very high probability still have a steppe climate twenty years from now.

Patterns of history are also fairly predictable. As Mark Twain put it, history does not repeat itself but it rhymes. With the Ukraine war, you can see where it is going, regardless of what kind of random surprises and human quirks have their effects.

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The typical Ukraine Nazi does not see where events in his or her part of the world are going. Some of them will but imagine that they will have fun in the present and be long gone before the consequences hit home. The Azov battalion members sitting in the catacombs under the Azovstal plant last spring finally saw where their situation was leading.

Most people who have followed the Ukraine conflict will recall that episode. These people had plenty of food, a source of water and electricity, and a huge maze to hide out in and hold off the Donesk militia. They imagined that NATO would soon enter the war, the Russians would be routed, and they would be rescued. There were rumours that some high ranking NATO officers were down there, who their governments would not want taken alive.

They ran out of medical supplies early. Wounds were becoming gangrenous. They had no way to dispose of their dead.

So finally they all came out and surrendered. Some were charged with relatively minor war crimes and imprisoned. Others were exchanged for prisoners held by Ukraine.

Rumours of the NATO brass and some higher ranking Nazis in the tunnels did not pan out. Some stupid Russian hack journalists tried to create a story that they were ordered killed to prevent capture, and their bodies cremated in these tunnels to prevent identification. But of course their identity documents happened to be laying around.

However, there is another fun rumour about Azovstal. It seems some Nazis may still be down there, refusing to give up. They would be something like those Japanese soldiers who hid out in the jungles for decades after world war two, waiting for orders from Hirohito. Some day the Moskals will be wiped out, and they can come up and be glorious heroes of Ukraine, with 101 virgins waiting for them.

There are reports that there are still Donetsk troops guarding the entrances into the Azovstal tunnels. The Azovs had a huge stockpile of canned and dried food down there. Those water sources and means of electrical generation would still be there.

It could be years before Zelinskiy’s last soldiers run out of means and have to come up. What kind of world will these Rip Van Winkleyuks find? The details are unknowable but the broad outlines of the post war reality are fairly clear.

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Ukraine as it is will likely not exist. Most of it will be reintegrated into Russia, including the Kiev metropolitan area. The northeastern part, Galicia, would still exist as a state of some sort.

Galicia would be under some sort of Russian occupation and reconstruction. Russia will not be interested in absorbing it. The aim will still be denazification.

It is uncertain how the Russians would go about denazification. They would want a complete end to the ‘toxic nationalism’ which has been the cause of all these troubles. This will likely involve some control of Galician/Ukrainian government for some time.

The Russians appear to have finally got off the sentimental idea, held over from Soviet times, that the Galicians are really their long lost cousins. The two peoples have origins in the old Kievan state, but they have been long separated by history. I have read observers who find the Galicians to have more in common with the Poles than with the Russians, particularly in their language.

Yet the Galician nationalists traditionally hated Poles as well. During the world war the Galician Nazis killed every Pole they could get at. So it is interesting that Poles and Galicians of Fascistic tendencies will now see each other as allies.

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Russia is going to win this conflict against NATO. It has the capacity to wage this kind of industrial war for the long run. The western NATO countries do not, and cannot quickly develop this capacity. More than that, Russia has at its back the emerging industrial and scientific colossus of China.

Russia will grind through Ukraine, Poland, Finland, and anything else the Atlanticist empire is able to set against them. What our Azovstal resident will find when he finally emerges is a very different Europe.

With the exception of Ukraine itself, the boundaries will be the same. However, NATO and the EU will no longer exist. There will be very different governments in most of these countries.

This is obvious to anyone with their minds outside the misinformation matrix which has been laid around the heads of people in Atlanticist core countries. The ruling elite of these countries have become lost in their own echo chambers. They massively underestimate Russia, and overestimate themselves and the resources they can command.

The European Union edifice is coming down in the next couple of years. The European publics are now seeing it for what it is. What is critical is that the middle levels of these countries, the people who actually run everything, have had enough of the nonsense.

The danger here is in what these people will do when they throw out the Brussels Eurocracy. They could set up some very authoritarian regimes of an industrial capitalist nature. These kinds of people will usually not subscribe to aggressive nationalism but may be very socially regressive.

I mean here the business managers and engineers, the local politicians, the military and police officers, and some parts of the civil service. The ‘left/progressive’ elements in most of these countries seem to be completely disorganized and coopted. They have been processed by advanced cognitive manipulation methods into neonazis howling for war with a nuclear power, or into ‘woke’ lunatics demanding that farming end.

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This is of course the good case scenario. Things can always go very bad. For one thing, the maniacs from Kiev may succeed in lighting up the Zaporezhnia nuclear plant.

This is the largest plant in Europe. It would be Chernobyl times five if it went up. The Russians now have the plant on ‘safe mode’ and no longer generating electricity, but there are huge amounts of fissile materials sitting there.

The plant is close to the front lines. It is right on the likely path of the ‘counteroffensive’ the Ukrainians and their handlers keep talking about. The Kookie Ukies keep shelling the place.

If a meltdown does happen, Mariupol and the Azovstal plant, and all of Donbass, will be downstream of the prevailing winds. The uninhabitable zone could reach that far. The Azovstal tunnel rats could come up one day and find the whole city evacuated and weirdly quiet.

There could be an even worse case. The could come up and discover that Mariupol has been hit during a nuclear war. There would be only blackened ruins and charred bodies, and dark at noon and snow in summer. Glory to Ukraine!

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In Western Canada before the days of thought policing, we had this phenomenon called the Ukrainian joke. They always turned on the supposed dullness, gullibility, and unsanitary personal habits of Ukrainian immigrants. They were really hilarious in junior high school days.

A droll thought often occurs to me when I am reading about the Ukraine war while feeling moody. If the Ukraine conflict accelerated into a nuclear exchange between the nuclear biggies, it would constitute the ultimate and final Ukrainian joke. It sometimes gives me a craving for some real Ukrainian style Pierogies.

But really, I do not think such a nuclear holocaust is as likely as some of these antiwar people think. It is becoming less likely as Russia and China keep developing their superiority in rocket technology. There is no way for the USA to gain any strategic advantage.

As for so called ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons, ones used by local forces, the Russian non nuclear rocket weapons are becoming more useful than nuclear ones. Russia can launch accurate and very devastating strikes, especially ‘decapitation strikes’, against command centres. They have not used them much, so far.

The Ukraine political leadership seems very afraid of a Russian decapitation strike on them. It seems to have caused them to refrain from certain types of action. Russians seem to be holding this back as a threat, to deter such actions.

Who knows what the tacit understandings are between the Russian and Ukraine commands. It is thought that Russians refrain from taking out Ukraine political leadership because they believe they will need someone with credible authority to sign a surrender agreement. They are also thought to have many agents inside that leadership.

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Until about ten years after the war, when many of these generals and politicians retire and write their memoirs, we will know little of what is really going on; why it is happening as it is. Right now there is a great deal of deception going on. Information warfare in the internet age is used to conceal real abilities and intentions.

In war the first casualty is the truth. However, there is a logic to the way the Russians are proceeding. On the other hand, the NATO/Ukraine side seems utterly senseless and insane.

One gets the depressing feeling that the whole thing is about keeping the money flowing. The Ukraine oligarchy wants to keep getting paid by NATO and USA so as to keep stuffing the money into their own accounts, and trafficking in the weapons sent to them. The US arms industry wants a constant flow of weapons sent to Ukraine for the Russians to destroy, so it can all be profitably restocked.

Western war mongers talk about the need to ‘weaken Russia.’ They have had a long term stated goal of breaking up Russia into smaller states. Russia is now rapidly getting stronger while the west gets weaker.

There is talk about an imminent Ukrainian ‘final offensive’. They are going to drive south and get Crimea back. The Russians are well prepared to meet this attack, but some express concern about what secret weapons the west may throw at them.

Trench battles are going on all along the line of contact between the enemy forces. Ukraine is slowly losing all of them. The Ukraine city of Bakhmut has now mostly become the Russian city of Artemovsk, and a charred ruin. Something similar is happening in Mari’inka, further south.

The Ukrainian bombardment of Donetsk continues, but has slowed recently. Apparently needing to maintain their credentials as total Nazi shits, they struck an orthodox cathedral on Easter Sunday, with obvious intent to cause maximum casualties.

There is chatter that Ukraine is only sending its third rate, untrained conscripts into these trench battles for key cities. The Russians are to be kept preoccupied by this cannon fodder. The real Ukrainian heroes are being prepared by NATO for the great offensive.

The Russians have plenty of forces in reserve. They are said to have built dense fortifications of their own between the Ukrainian army and Crimea. They seem to be waiting for the Ukrainians to come to them, as they have been doing from the start of the war.

NATO is now giving the Ukrainians nasty things like depleted uranium shells, which can poison large areas for eternity. Russians do not like that. The Ukrainians are preparing to blow up all the dams along the Dneiper river to flood fields and impede the Russians.

The Russians are patient. The essential fact of this war is that the Ukrainians and their NATO handlers thought they were going to trap the Russians in a guerrilla war. Instead the Russians trapped them in an attrition war.

Russian casualties have been fairly light in this conflict. The Ukies keep shoving untrained troops into the meat grinder and the Russkies happily turn the crank. They will want to keep the war close to their own border until the very end.

Russians understand the limitations of their own armed forces. In the period after the fall of the Soviet Union, it fell into decay. They are still building up a core of competent officers.

They have recently tripled the authorized strength of their ground force. It will take awhile for brigades to be built into full divisions. The Russian army is doing this on the fly.

The Russians are working to correct deficiencies they have found in their forces. They have had some problems with command and control systems. Their air force was shown to be vulnerable to anti aircraft fire.

The Russians seem to see the Ukraine war so far as testing and training for more serious conflicts which are coming. The Poles, the Romanians, and the Finns are all being prepared by Western intelligence operations to be forced into a war with Russia against the will of their populations. The Atlanticist elite are not interested in success, they just want the war to go on indefinitely.

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This leads us to a very simple answer to the question of when and how this war will end. It will end when the Atlanticists collapse. These people, the globalists, the Davos crowd, the ruling class, still seem to think they are invulnerable.

Their collapse will be a terrible shock to them. This event will likely be triggered whenever the Russians decide it is time to end the attrition war and dissolve Ukraine. This may be right after the Ukrainian “spring offensive’’, if it actually happens.

We will see.